000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE JUN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 
SMALL AREA OF WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AROUND 0600 UTC TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. THE LARGER 
SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT 
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP 
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 30 KT LIKELY THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. IN THIS SCENARIO...MAX SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-11 FT. NE SWELL WILL IN TURN PROPAGATE SW 
AWAY FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W FROM 05N-13N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT S OF 12N. 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS SUPPRESSED 
AND LIMITED WITH RANDOMLY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
  
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 06N-15N IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE 
CONTENT S OF 13N NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 08N-17N IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE WAVE IS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER CONVECTION E OF 
THE WAVE AXIS N OF THE ITCZ...WHICH IS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 06N91W TO 10N118W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W 
AND 119W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 130W-140W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 20N W OF 120W. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS N OF THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 124W-129W...AND GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS DOWNSTREAM 
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS NOTED BELOW. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN W OF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST THROUGH WED EVENING...RESULTING IN 8-9 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL 
REACHING TO NEAR 30N-31N BETWEEN 118W-123W WED NIGHT...AND THEN 
SUBSIDE THU. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 110W THROUGH THU.
                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH ENHANCED 
EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS TO PULSE E OF 90W DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...THEN RETRACTING TO NEAR 90W BY WED MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL