000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230923 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 88W FROM 05N-13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW ANIMATION SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT CONFINED TO S OF 11N. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CURRENTLY ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 106W FROM 06N-14N MOVING W AT 10- 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 09N-16N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A VERY DEEP MOIST LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS OBSERVED ON THE TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 9.5N-11N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 09N87W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 06N105W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 05N140W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 106W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A NEARLY STATIONARY AND RATHER LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AT 08N128W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHWARD TO NEAR 25N130W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 16N107W AND IS LIFTING NNW. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND STRETCHES FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N139W TO ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR 29N125W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS DAYS. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 91W-103W DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 16N107W...AND A BROAD UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BELIZE. BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC E OF ABOUT 85W...INCLUDING COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N131W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10N-20N W OF 130W DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. ALTIMETER DATA REVEALED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF TRADES. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY WED BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS TO 8 FT...GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS JUST N OF AREA... ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W BY WED EVENING. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 00N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W TONIGHT...AND TO 9 FT S OF 03N BETWEEN 105W AND 135W BY WED NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND FROM 09.5N-12N E OF 89W. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 11 FT TODAY. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING TO NEAR 104W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND 111W BY LATE WED NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF N-NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF WITH ESTIMATED SEAS OF 8 FT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT. THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS GAP WIND EVENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WED AND THU AROUND 0600 UTC EACH NIGHT. MARINE GUIDANCES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE. BASED ON THIS AND THE TIME OF THE YEAR... DECIDE TO INCREASE WINDS UP TO 30 KT. $$ GR