000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201553 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED N OF 04N ALONG 79W CROSSING WESTERN PANAMA TO NEAR JAMAICA...AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PASSING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 07N ALONG 89W...AND CONTINUES N ACROSS EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE PACIFIC WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N104W TO 14N103W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WELL E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 10N94W 14N100W AND MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N125W TO 12N124W AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N138W TO 16N138W AND WILL SOON PASS W OF 140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 08N78W AND WIGGLES W BETWEEN 06- 09N TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103-104W. THE ITCZ FORMS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 07N102W AND EXTENDS WNW TO 08N116W...THEN TURNS SW THROUGH THE EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WEAK MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 06N92W TO 08N97W TO 07N100W...ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 07N108W TO 04N124W...AND ALONG THE W SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE OF LINE FROM 12.5N118W TO 03N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 110-138W. AN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED E INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N135W TO 29.5N140W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS W OF THE AREA FROM 32N143W TO 28N150W. AN UPPER TRO180 NM OF 12N96WUGH EXTENDS SW FROM W TEXAS AT 32N100W TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THEN TURNS S THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 11N110W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED W OF THE TROUGH AT 15N122W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 06N130W TO NEAR 00N144W. THIS RIDGE IS IN PHASE WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 04N73W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 13N102W. THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS SUPPORTING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. AT THE LOW LEVELS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 18N120W TO 15N101W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT OBSERVED FROM 10-16N W OF 125W IN MIXING NE TRADE SWELL AND CROSS- EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS WILL SHRINK TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 09-14N W OF 136W EARLY MON. 180 NM OF 12N96W LO180 NM OF 12N96WNG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS 8-9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF LINE FROM 00N140W TO 04N120W TO 04N103W. EXPECT THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95-135W ON WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NE 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES WITH THE WESTERLY EXTENT REACHING NEAR 10N92W. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE W AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SSW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ALONG A SWATCH FROM 07-13N BETWEEN 92-112W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT SURGES TO BEGIN AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. $$ NELSON