000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND COASTA RICA AND EXTENDS INTO THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 08N84W WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N95W TO 07N96W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N117W TO 05N118W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS...MORE CONCENTRATED FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N96W TO 08N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N105W TO 08N115W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 06N125W TO 04N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...AND BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N130W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 23N115W TO 25N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AN IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 18N. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER SE MEXICO...THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 115W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N138W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE INTO THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR THE CLARION ISLAND. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-16N W OF 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADES PER A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 132W FROM 10N-14N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. SE SWELLS MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS S OF LINE FROM 03.4S95W TO 04N105W TO 04N114W TO 00N125W. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THIS AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9 FT. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE W REACHING 92W BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THIS GULF...PARTICULARLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT USUALLY DEVELOPS W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THIS GULF PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. $$ GR