000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190250 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUN 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 10N ALONG 81W MOVING W AT 10 KT. EARLIER ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO JUST W OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION NEAR 17N97W SSW TO 10N98W MOVING W WITHIN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-11N. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE REMAINS UNDER SLIGHT UPPER DIFFLUENCE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N86W... AND EXTENDS SW TO 08N94W TO 08N104W WHERE THE ITCZ THEN BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N117W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 99W-103W ...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 106W-110W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 109W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 28N123W...AS A MUCH SMALLER ONE IS TO ITS S AT 17N116W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 19N BETWEEN 110W-140W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO BE PRESENT N OF 17N AND BETWEEN 120W-140W...AND ALSO N OF 20N E OF 120W. DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH THE SLY FLOW OCCURRING TO THE S OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS MOISTURE CONSISTS OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 114W-132W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NW MEXICO SW TO TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW TO NEAR 23N118W. A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO AT 21N102W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 19N110W. THE UPPER FLOW IS NORTHERLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE GULF TEHUANTEPEC...S TO NEAR 10N AND E OF 98W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N138W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N130W AND TO NEAR 25N120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-15N W OF 137W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 117W/118W FROM 06N-10N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROUGH IS NEAR THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...HOWEVER NEW CELLS IN LINEAR FASHION CONSISTING OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 119W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALONG 132W FROM 13N-16N WITH ONLY WEAKENING SCATTERED ALONG IT. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED RELATIVELY LOW SEA STATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION W OF ABOUT 120W WHERE HIGHER SEA STATE OF 8-9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WHERE HIGHLIGHTED. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SE SWELLS MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING IN AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS S OF 02N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY 48 HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN SW SWELLS EXPECTED S OF A LINE FROM 01N129W TO 04N117W TO 08N96W AT THAT TIME. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NE 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES WITH THE WESTERLY EXTENT REACHING NEAR 10N92W WITH THE FIRST PULSE FORECAST TO START UP LATE TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE W AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ALONG A SWATCH FROM 08.5N-11.5N BETWEEN 88W-104W BY 24 HOURS...AND FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 86W-107W IN 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE