000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 09N TO INLAND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE UW-CIMSS TPW IMAGERY PRODUCT SHOWS DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO THE S OF THE WAVE AXIS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N TO 11N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N106W TO 05N107W MOVING W AT 16 KT. THE UW-CIMSS TPW IMAGERY PRODUCT DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BETWEEN 102W-107W AND S TO THE ITCZ. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MOISTURE MATCHES VERY WELL WITH ONGOING SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W-107W. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOTED TO BE UNDER A SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 05N95W TO 07N106W TO 06N115W TO 05N123W TO 03N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 80W-84W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 85.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 109W-117W...AND S OF THE ITCZ W OF 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W-103W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...DUAL ANTICYCLONES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES OVER THE AREA WITH THE FIRST ONE AT 25N130W AND THE SECOND ONE TO ITS NE AT 29N121W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 19N BETWEEN 120W-140W. THESE FEATURES ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO BE PRESENT N OF 14N AND BETWEEN 120W- 140W...AND ALSO N OF 20N E OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO OVER THE NE PORTION TO NEAR 22N120W. A STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE IS CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR 20N108W...WHICH IS JUST W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS. LEFT OVER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM LOW IS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD WESTWARD EXTENDING RIDGE THAT REACHES FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA W TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING TO KEEP DEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 84W-85.5W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N133W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N130W AND TO NEAR 22N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-15N W OF 132W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW TO A POSITION NEAR 33N139W IN 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING WITH LITTLE IF ANY INFLUENCE ON THE PRESENT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED RELATIVELY LOW SEA STATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION W OF ABOUT 115W WHERE HIGH SEA STATE OF 8-10 FT IN SE SWELLS WHERE CAPTURES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A SET OF SE SWELLS...MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS CROSSING THE EQUATOR IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AS MENTIONED ABOVE S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S95W TO 03N106W TO 00N130W. THIS AREA OF SWELLS WILL SPREAD N TO NEAR 02N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF INSTANCES OF 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS. $$ AGUIRRE