000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 103.5W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 15N TO 17.5N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. CARLOS REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM AND IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS... 
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...FROM 
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN TO JALISCO...THROUGH TUE. REFER 
TO LOCAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL 
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND STORM SWELLS 
ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE 
WATERS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH 
CARLOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL 
CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N112W TO 08N120W TO 05N125W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
41N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N132W EXTENDING 
TO 17N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND 
W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

WITH A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
WATERS FROM THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
AND WILL FALL TO 20 KT OR LESS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING HOURS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE FAR SW WATERS 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF 02N W OF 130W. THIS 
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT LATE TUE NIGHT. 
A SECOND SET OF SE SWELLS...MIXED WITH SW SWELLS WILL CROSS THE 
EQUATOR LATE TUE...AND BY WED EVENING SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
COVER THE AREA S OF 02N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W.

$$
AL