000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 
103.0W AT 2100 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED 
FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. CARLOS REMAINS A SMALL 
SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST 
OF MEXICO...FROM WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN TO 
JALISCO...THROUGH TUE. REFER TO LOCAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS 
FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND 
STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR 
AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY 
SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES 
AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND 
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N120W TO 05N126W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
42N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N133W EXTENDING 
TO 20N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND 
W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

WITH A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
WATERS FROM THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
AND WILL FALL TO 20 KT OR LESS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING HOURS. 

$$
AL