000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151617
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 17N 102.5W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 988 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR 
ACROSS CARLOS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS ACTED TO DIMINISH 
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS THAT HAD 
BRIEFLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM 14.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 101W 
AND 104W. CARLOS REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MOVE 
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO...FROM WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN TO 
JALISCO...THROUGH TUE. REFER TO LOCAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS 
FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND 
STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR 
AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY 
SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES 
AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND 
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE. CARLOS 
IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TONIGHT TO HURRICANE FORCE THEN 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH THE COASTAL ZONE NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N101W TO 07N117W TO 07.5N121W TO 
04N132W TO BEYOND 05.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 112W TO 120W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC HAS 
SHIFTED SE AND WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND WAS 
CENTERED NEAR 44N143W AT 1025 MB. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE 
HIGH THROUGH 30N134W TO 16N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N 
OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

NORTHERLY SWELLS THAT AFFECTED THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS HAVE 
SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT OVERNIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH 
SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 
05N. THE SWELL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COVER THE WATERS S OF 02N W OF 100W. 

$$
STRIPLING