000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150849
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 101.8W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 988 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG N OF 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THROUGH 
TUE...RUNNING GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF GUERRERO AND 
MICHOACAN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY ACROSS 
GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN 
SPREAD FARTHER N ACROSS MICHOACAN AND JALISCO MON NIGHT THROUGH 
TUE. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS 
WILL AFFECT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE WATERS OF 
GUERRERO TO THE WATERS OF MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH 
CARLOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL 
CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 9N119W TO 5N130W TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 
114W-117W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N131W 
WITH TROUGH TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N123W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH TWO ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ONE NEAR 21N109N AND ANOTHER AT 21N119W. STRONG 
SUBSTANCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 
10N W OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CARLOS.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA FROM 32N136W TO 18N111W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N 
AND W OF 128W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR 
LESS. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE 
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA S OF 03N W OF 121W. THE SWELL WILL SHIFT 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COVER THE AREA S OF 
03N W OF 133W AND 140W BY TUE EVENING. 

$$
DGS