000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 100.4W 986 MB AT 1500 
UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E AND 120 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES...WHILE A BAND OF STRONG SW WINDS REMOVED TO THE E 
OF CARLOS WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 10N99.5W TO 16N94W AND EXTENDED INLAND 
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD SOME 75 NM. CARLOS HAS 
BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NW OVERNIGHT AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
TO MOVE NW AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING 
THROUGH TUE...RUNNING GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF 
GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY 
ACROSS OAXACA...GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AND THEN SPREAD FARTHER N ACROSS MICHOACAN AND JALISCO 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MONDAY. VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED 
SEAS AND STORM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL AFFECT THE 
NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE 
WATERS OF MICHOACAN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND 
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP 
CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N100W TO 07N110W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 03.5N121W TO 05N132W... 
THEN CONTINUES AGAIN FROM 06.5N136W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 11.5N E OF 
92.5W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC EXTENDS SE INTO 
THE AREA FROM 30N140W TO 16N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N 
OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 128W. AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG THE 
ITCZ WAS ALONG 133-134W AND S OF 18N...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 
KT...WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 210 
NM E AND W OF THE WAVE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TO PRODUCE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THIS REGION...AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT 
OR LESS. 

STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA HAVE 
PRODUCE NORTHERLY SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS N OF 
28N BETWEEN 126W AND 138W AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT 
LATER TODAY.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE PREVAIL 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 2.5N BETWEEN 116W AND 139W...AND 
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
STRIPLING