000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132100
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 100.0W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 
90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 
NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. CARLOS 
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE N AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN TO THE 
NW LATER TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS 
TRACK AND RUN PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN 
COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY ACROSS OAXACA AND GUERRERO DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN SPREADING FARTHER NW TO INCLUDE 
MICHOACAN AND JALISCO THROUGH MONDAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS AND STORM 
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE 
WATERS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE WATERS OF MICHOACAN 
THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW WITH CARLOS OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. THESE WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS 
SURF CONDITIONS AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N104W TO 06N115W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
09N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1040 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N137W TO 18N111W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 
125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR 
LESS. 

GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAVE 
GENERATED A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH 
THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W THIS EVENING BEFORE 
SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT ON SUN.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE HAVE 
PROPAGATED INTO THE FORECAST WATERS S OF 01N BETWEEN 115W AND 
123W. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REMAIN S OF 02N BUT WILL SPREAD 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
AL