000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 100.2 AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING NE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 97W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 92W-102W. CARLOS IS FORECAST TO 
START A MOVEMENT TO THE NW PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SUN NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO...PRIMARILY IN THE STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL 
INCREASE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AND THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
TIDE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 11N104W TO 6N120W TO 8N125W TO 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 19N110W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE 
WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS 
GENERATED A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE 
NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 128W AND 136W SAT NIGHT. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA GENERALLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W.

$$ 
DGS