000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI JUN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 100.7W AT 12/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 139 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND 187 NM SSE OF 
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY/FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM IN 
THE SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NW OF CENTER FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 103W AND 
105W. CARLOS IS PRESENTLY EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY SHEAR. CARLOS 
IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BY SUN AS IT SLOWLY 
MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO...PRIMARILY IN THE STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL 
INCREASE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AND THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N105W TO 07N110W TO 06N117W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N117W TO 08N125W TO 07N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 121W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 47N143W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N135W TO 20N120W.  
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ 
TO 20N. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE REDWOOD COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
WILL GENERATE FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W BY SAT 
MORNING...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W BY SUN MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS...GENERALLY S OF 01N BETWEEN 
107W AND 134W...TODAY THROUGH SAT. 

$$ 
FORMOSA