000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI JUN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 100.8W AT 12/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 143 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND 187 NM SSE OF 
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY/FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM IN 
THE SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 
14N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. CARLOS IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE 
INTENSITY BY SAT AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD 
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD 
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY IN THE 
STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THESE SWELLS COULD 
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N107W TO 06N117W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N117W TO 08N128W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W... 
AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 47N143W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N133W TO 17N116W.  
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ 
TO 20N. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. 

GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE REDWOOD COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
WILL GENERATE FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W BY SAT 
MORNING...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 139W BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS...GENERALLY S OF 01N BETWEEN 
110W AND 130W...LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT. 

$$ 
LEWITSKY