000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120243
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI JUN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 100.4W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING NNW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 92W 
AND 105W. CARLOS IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY FRI 
NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY IN THE STATES OF OAXACA AND 
GUERRERO...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS ASSOCIATED 
WITH CARLOS WILL SPREAD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS 
SEAS BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N105W TO 06N115W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
08N126W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
118W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
46N144W EXTENDS RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N131W TO 18N111W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE 
TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
GALES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL GENERATE A 
NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 
29N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W BY SAT MORNING...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 
128W AND 136W BY SAT EVENING. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS...GENERALLY S OF 01N BETWEEN 
110W AND 120W FRI INTO SAT. 

$$ 
AL