000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU JUN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 100.3W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING NNW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 
NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FOUND 
ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 89W AND 105W. CARLOS IS 
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BY EARLY SAT MORNING AS IT 
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN 
COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY IN THE STATES OF OAXACA AND 
GUERRERO...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS ASSOCIATED 
WITH CARLOS WILL SPREAD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS 
SEAS BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N102W TO 06N110W TO 06N116W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 07N124W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 
128W AND 132W AND 210 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 103 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
46W150W EXTENDS RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N132W TO 18N110W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE 
TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AND TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
GALES DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL 
GENERATE A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE NORTHERN 
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W BY SAT MORNING. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS...GENERALLY S OF 01N BETWEEN 
106N-120W FRI INTO SAT. 

$$ 
AL