000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU JUN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

NEWLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 
100.4W AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 89W-105W. 
CARLOS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE BY SAT MORNING 
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY IN THE STATES OF OAXACA AND 
GUERRERO...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS ASSOCIATED 
WITH CARLOS WILL SPREAD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS 
SEAS BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 12N104W TO 06N110W TO 
04N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N116W TO 07N126W TO 
08N138W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-127W AS WELL AS WITHIN 210 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 
32N134W TO 28N130W TO 15N109W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN 
BE FOUND BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS AND THE RIDGE. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING 
OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES IS GENERATING MODERATE 
TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS 
MORNING. THIS TROUGHING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING AND 
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN ALSO 
FEATURES AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 20N130W 
AS WELL AS A STRONG UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 27N148W. 
THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND 
ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL WILL CARRY SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE 
INTO FORECAST WATERS S OF 01N BETWEEN 106N-120W FRI INTO SAT. 
SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH 7-9 FT IN WATERS N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 129W-135W BY SAT MORNING AS N SWELL FROM GALE CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED N OF 35N PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 

$$ 
SCHAUER