000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101501
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED JUN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

LOW PRESSURE 1004 MB CENTERED NEAR 12N98W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS WITHIN 280 NM N OF 
THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND THERE IS A 
HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON FROM LOW PRES NEAR 12N98W TO 6N115W TO 7N123W. ITCZ FROM 
7N123W TO 9N130W TO 7N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
280 NM NW OF LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N176W TO 26N134W. UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N131W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
13N132W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 110W. ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED JUST W OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
23N115W...WITH RIDGE SW TO 14N126W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED 
ABOVE.

MAINLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS 
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE NEAR 
09N96W.

$$ 
DGS