000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED JUN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

LOW PRESSURE 1004 MB CENTERED NEAR 11967W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
BROADER MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FEATURE IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW 
PRESSURE AREA...AND THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 
TO 06N110W TO 09N119W TO 09N131W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N 
QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 11N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 122W

...DISCUSSION...

1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 40N154W 
EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 20N120W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES 
N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH OVER WESTERN WATERS. THE RIDGE OVER 
THE AREA WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH SO THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTSIDE 
OF THE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...BENIGN 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER EASTERN WATERS. 

$$ 
MUNDELL