000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JUN 9 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N96W HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES RANDOM DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG N OF 8N ALONG 85W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N106W TO 7N110W TO 10N 125W TO 7N137W. 
ITCZ FROM 7N137W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 112W-116W AND WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 122W-127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 25N132W. DOWNSTREAM 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 33N128W TO 25N123W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 12B W OF 110W. 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE TIP BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N109W...WITH RIDGE SW TO 18N126W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 100W AND 
117W.

MAINLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS EXCEPT 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE NEAR 09N96W.

$$ 
DGS