000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON JUN 8 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA INLAND CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 112.0W AT 
08/1500 UTC MOVING NNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KHNC OR PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 28N. BLANCA IS 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASED 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOVING OVER LAND...AND DECREASE TO BELOW 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG N OF 3N ALONG 85W N OF 04N MOVING W AT 15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 
05N W OF 81W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N122W TO 09N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 
127W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 127W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA ARE BEING SHEARED N 
OF THE CENTER BY SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 25N103W. AN TROUGH 
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N127W TO 15N126W. BROAD 
SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE S OF CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING DEEP 
LAYER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 08N93W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FOUND 
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W.

LARGE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 95W-112W. A 
LARGE COMPONENT OF SEA HEIGHTS IS SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG 
PERIOD SWELL...WHICH CAN PRODUCE LARGE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS 
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ALONG WITH MIXED SWELL 
GENERATED BY BLANCA THE PAST FEW DAYS.

SW MONSOON WINDS INCREASING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 
POSSIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO FROM THE LOW 
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 08N93W THROUGH WED.

$$ 
DGS