000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN JUN 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 111.0W AT 07/2100 UTC  
MOVING NNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KHNC OR PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. SWELL 
GENERATED BY BLANCA ARE AFFECTING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENTS. BLANCA HAS RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL 
STORM AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A 
TROPICAL STORM IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND 
THEN DISSIPATE EARLY WED. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 80W N OF 04N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 82W.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N112W TO 10N120W TO 10N26W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 10N126W TO 09N134W TO BEYOND 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 123W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 
11N BETWEEN 123W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BLANCA IS LOCATED SW OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 254N104W...WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N131W TO 20N127W TO 12N135W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO NEAR 14N93W. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION FROM 3N-15N BETWEEN 85W-115W.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 10N BETWEEN 91W-115W WILL SPREAD N 
MON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SW MONSOON 
WINDS INCREASING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM A LOW 
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 07N95W THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY 
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD N OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

$$ 
FORMOSA