000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071620
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN JUN 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 20.5.8N 111.0W AT 07/1500 UTC  
MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KHNC OR PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 19N TO 
22N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. SWELL GENERATED BY BLANCA ARE 
AFFECTING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH MAY 
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. BLANCA IS EXPECTED 
TO TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
MONDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THEN MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL 
STORM IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN DISSIPATE 
EARLY WED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 12N113W TO 8N132W. ITCZ FROM 8N132W TO 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 113W TO 123W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 135W-140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BLANCA IS LOCATED SW OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 254N104W...WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N131W TO 20N127W TO 12N135W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO NEAR 14N93W. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION FROM 3N-15N BETWEEN 85W-115W.  

THE REMNANT 1009 MB LOW OF ANDRES WEAKEND TO A TROUGH FROM 
18N16W TO 17N122W DRIFTING SE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 
KT...SEAS REMAIN 8 FT IN THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND MERGE WITH SWELL FROM BLANCA BY THIS 
EVENING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 10N BETWEEN 91W-110W WILL SPREAD N 
AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MON MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
SW MONSOON WINDS INCREASING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM A 
LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 05N94W THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY 
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD N OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

$$ 
DGS