000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN JUN 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 110.8W AT 07/0900 UTC  
MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KHNC OR PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. SWELL GENERATED BY 
BLANCA ARE AFFECTING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH 
MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. BLANCA IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THEN MAKE LANDFALL AS A 
TROPICAL STORM IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 11N123W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

BLANCA IS LOCATED SW OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N104W...WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N132W TO 20N127W TO 12N134W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO NEAR 14N93W. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN 85W AND 115W.  

THE REMNANT 1009 MB LOW OF ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 18N120W AND 
DRIFTING SE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LESS THAN 25 KT...SEAS REMAIN 8 
FT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
AND MERGE WITH SWELL FROM BLANCA BY SUN EVENING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 09N BETWEEN 91W-110W WILL SPREAD N 
AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
SW MONSOON WINDS INCREASING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM A 
LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 05N94W THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY 
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD N OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

$$ 
MUNDELL