000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070256
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN JUN 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 110.4W AT 07/0300 UTC  
MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KHNC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 108W 
AND 114W. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE 
SW COAST OF MEXICO...THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE 
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS. BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SW COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR LATE SUNDAY. BLANCA IS PRESENTLY A CATEGORY 3 
HURRICANE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. 
BLANCA SHOULD BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE W COAST 
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.     

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
ITCZ FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 31N134W TO 12N138W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 13N W OF 120W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER WESTERN MEXICO 
NEAR 21N104W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
FROM 3N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 106W. 

THE REMNANT 1007 MB LOW OF ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 18N120W AND 
IS DRIFTING TO THE SE. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 20 KT OR LESS BUT 
STILL HAVE SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE...DISSIPATE...AND MERGING WITH SWELL 
FROM BLANCA BY SUN EVENING.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT IS S OF 00N BETWEEN 92W-
120W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD N TO 10N OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 5N94W TO 11N98W.

$$ 
FORMOSA