000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1765 UTC SAT JUN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 109.9W AT 06/2100 UTC  
MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KHNC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 
23N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA ARE 
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. BLANKA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 
THE SW COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATE SUNDAY. BLANKA IS 
PRESENTLY A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD 
BEGIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. BLANCA SHOULD BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN 
IT MOVES NEAR THE W COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA.     

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
ITCZ FROM 11N127W TO 08N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 31N134W TO 12N138W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 13N W OF 120W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER WESTERN MEXICO 
NEAR 21N104W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
FROM 3N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 106W. 

THE REMNANT 1009 MB LOW OF ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 18N120W AND 
IS DRIFTING TO THE SE. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 20 KT OR LESS BUT 
STILL HAVE SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT NW OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT WITH THE SEAS SHIFTING E AND 
MERGING WITH BLANCA BY SAT EVENING.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT IS S OF 01S BETWEEN 95W-
120W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD N TO 13N OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 7N91W TO 12N94W.

$$ 
FORMOSA