000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1165 UTC SAT JUN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BLANCA CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 109.4W AT 06/1500 UTC  
MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KHNC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM N AND 120N S SEMICIRCLES OF THE 
CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS SPEED HAS INCREASED MAKING BLANCA A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE 
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. BLANCA IS FORECASTED 
TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUN BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. A TURN TO N-NW IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK 
BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA LATE SUN. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA ARE CURRENTLY 
AFFECTING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE 
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH 12N120W TO 11N127W. ITCZ FROM 11N127W TO 08N140W. 
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 31N134W TO 12N138W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 13N W OF 120W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER WESTERN MEXICO 
NEAR 21N104W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
FROM 3N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND 106W. 

THE REMNANT 1008 MB LOW OF ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 18N121W AND 
IS DRIFTING TO THE SE. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 20 KT OR LESS BUT 
STILL HAVE SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT NW OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT WITH THE SEAS SHIFTING E AND 
MERGING WITH BLNACA BY SUN NIGHT.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT IS S OF 10 N BETWEEN 90W-
116W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 6N90W TO 13N95W.

$$ 
DGS