000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041507 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 04/1500 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA WAS NEAR 12.3N 105.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. HURRICANE BLANCA HAS WEAKENED BUT IS FORECAST TO RE INTENSIFY AND REACH 105 KT BY FRI MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 105 KT THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. BLANCA SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW STARTING TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA ARE AFFECTING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR STARTING FRI MORNING. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO EARLY SAT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 04/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 124.5W AND MOVING E OR 95 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM IS KEEPING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NE...CURRENTLY FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. ANDRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ANDRES TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO THE SE LATER TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES...AS WELL AS LONG-PERIOD CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA ON FRI AND SAT. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO NEAR 89W N OF 06N. THE WAVE IS MOVING EXTREMELY SLOW AS THERE IS LITTLE STEERING CURRENT DUE TO HURRICANE BLANCA. THE CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W AND FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N134W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N135W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 25N117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HURRICANE BLANCA MOVES ON A NW TRACK. THIS WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS FROM EXCEEDING A FRESH BREEZE THROUGH SAT MORNING. A DEVELOPING GALE N OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WILL GENERATE A NORTHERLY SWELL. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SWELLS WILL PEAK NEAR 9 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W BY SAT MORNING. $$ AL