000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030957 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUN 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 03/0900 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA WAS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 12.6N 104.7W. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED INCREASED TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM S QUADRANT. BLANCA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...THEN BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA WILL REACH THE SW COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO FRI. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AT 03/0900 UTC...NEWLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 124.8W AND MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ANDRES TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND TAKING A TURN TO THE E-SE THU. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 07N ALONG 87W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AROUND 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 11N TO THE COAST AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-14N...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF NICARAGUA AND NW COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA LATER IN THE WEEK. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N125W TO 10N133W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 360 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE S IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0648 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED TO THE N BY ANDRES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PREVENT TRADE WINDS FROM EXCEEDING A FRESH BREEZE THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS OVER 8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL HAVE MERGED WITH THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES. THE LEADING EDGE OF LONG-PERIOD...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BLANKETED THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTHWARD. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM ANDRES AND BLANCA ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA IS ALLOWING ONE LAST PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS...ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 7- 9 FT RANGE...SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD. $$ SCHAUER