000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020953 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 02/0900 UTC...ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 122.2W MOVING NORTHWEST OR 310 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ANDRES WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 104.6W AT 02/0900 UTC. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 1 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM...EXCEPT 0 NM NW QUADRANT WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER AREA FROM 02N-14N BETWEEN 93W-102W. BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BLANCA TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TODAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY THU. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 83W N OF 07N TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 06N E OF 85W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER FLOW AROUND BLANCA LATER IN THE WEEK. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 12N125W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 04N W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0404 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER N AS ANDRES PROGRESSES TO THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS LATER TODAY. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL LIE IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL MERGE WITH THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ANDRES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND IS APPROACHING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. PERIODS LIE IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN. THE SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MAZATLAN LATER THIS MORNING AND BLANKET THE ENTIRE COAST...EXCEPT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL MIX WITH SWELL FROM ANDRES ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE LATE TUE AND EARLY WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE BOTH TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL TROUGHING MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THESE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW A STRONG BREEZE AFTER SUNRISE AND RETURN AGAIN EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE WED. 7-9 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WED AS THE LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ENCOUNTERS NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GAP WINDS. $$ SCHAUER