000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020253 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ANDRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AT 02/0300 UTC...ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 121.4W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...ANDRES WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND FURTHER DIMINISHING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 104.0W AT 02/0300 UTC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE WHILE NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. BLANCA IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR BLANCA TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUE...AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE WED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ONLY A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N125W TO 08N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND MAINLY FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 132W. ...DISCUSSION... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 137W WITH SEAS OF 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DISPLACED N OF THE AREA AS ANDRES MOVES TO THE NW. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS...WITH PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDS...ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 120W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTE BY TUE MORNING. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL MIX WITH SWELL GENERATED BY ANDRES AND BLANCA...AND WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE MAINLY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TUE AND EARLY WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THIS GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE BOTH TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA AND TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL TROUGHING MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WERE OBSERVED ARE ACROSS THIS GULF. WINDS COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO FRESH-LOCALLY STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. $$ GR