000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012136 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ANDRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT REMAINS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AT 01/2100 UTC...ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 121.1W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...ANDRES WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND FURTHER DIMINISHING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM BLANCA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 103.9W AT 01/2100 UTC . THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. BLANCA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 09N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 131W. ...DISCUSSION... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 137W. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER RAPIDSCAT OVERPASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DISPLACED N OF THE AREA AS ANDRES MOVES TO THE NW. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS...WITH PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDS...ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 120W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTE BY LATE TUE MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL MIX WITH SWELL GENERATED BY ANDRES AND BLANCA...AND WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE MAINLY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO...AND ALONG THE THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TUE AND EARLY WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THIS GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE BOTH TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA AND TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL TROUGHING MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS THIS GULF. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO FRESH-LOCALLY STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. $$ GR