000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011529 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ANDRES WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CONTINUES AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AT 01/1500 UTC...ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 120.3W MOVING WEST OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED INCREASED TO 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST FROM WED ONWARD. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 104.1W AT 01/1500 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N107W TO 14N100W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND BECOME HURRICANE ON TUE. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N125W TO 07N130W TO 09N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES IS CROSSING 120W AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. FRESH SOUTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM ANDRES IS PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA N OF 20N AND E OF 120W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA...SUPPORTING A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED 20 KT WEST WINDS N OF 30N ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LOW PRES THIS MORNING...DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER GULF OF CALIFORNIA REMAIN MINIMAL. FARTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM BLANCA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. BLANCA WILL INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY TUE BUT MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THU DRIFTING NNW THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING AS FAR AS 120 NM ON ITS EASTERN SIDE BY WED. BLANCA WILL PRODUCE FRESH SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS 20N THROUGH THU. EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN BLANCA AND THE MEXICAN COAST PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W THROUGH MID WEEK. MEANWHILE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LAST NIGHT WITH A REPEAT EXPECTED TONIGHT. S OF 15N E OF 110W...A LARGE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF BLANCA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TUE. FRESH SWELL GENERATED BY BLANCA WILL MIX WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE EQUATOR RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT W OF 95W BY MID WEEK. MEANWHILE THE DEEPENING LOW PRES RELATED TO BLANCA WAS ENHANCING GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LAST NIGHT WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE. GAP WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. ELSEWHERE...ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS OVERRUN A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N125W TO 24N140W. A 05 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE BREEZES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0608 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DISPLACED N OF THE AREA AS ANDRES PROGRESSES TO THE NW. THIS WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS AT A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS THROUGH WED. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL LIE IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL MERGE WITH THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ANDRES OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN