000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010949 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON JUN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0745 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ANDRES IS THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH 
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. AT 01/0900 UTC...IT WAS CENTERED NEAR 
15.5N 119.8W MOVING WEST OR 275 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 938 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
INCREASED TO 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. 
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES 
OVER COLDER WATERS. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST FROM WED 
ONWARD. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE 
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE 
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 104.0W AT 
01/0900 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE FOUND SE OF THE 
CENTER FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE S OF 17N TO A LINE FROM 
03N94W TO 07N110W BETWEEN 94W-110W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY AND COULD BECOME A 
HURRICANE ON TUE. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N119W TO 06N127W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS OVERRUN A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT 
ANALYZED FROM 32N121W TO 28N132W TO 24N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE FRONT. A 0502 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWS A 
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE JUST N OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE TODAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE 
WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY THE 0608 
UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DISPLACED N OF 
THE AREA AS ANDRES PROGRESSES TO THE NW. THIS WILL KEEP TRADE 
WINDS AT A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS THROUGH WED. SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL LIE IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST 
WINDS. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL MERGE WITH THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH 
HURRICANE ANDRES OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODS LIE IN THE 19-21 
SECOND RANGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN. THE SWELL 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GALAPAGOS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...REACH THE 
COAST OF SE MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MAZATLAN BY TUE MORNING 
AND BLANKET THE ENTIRE COAST...EXCEPT THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL MIX WITH SWELL FROM 
ANDRES ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE LATE TUE AND EARLY WED.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER NE 
MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE BOTH TO THE SW ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. 
TWO-E AND TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL TROUGHING MOVING W 
OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALLOWING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR ADVISORY 
CRITERIA UNTIL TUE EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0334 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED A FRESH TO 
STRONG E-NE BREEZE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS HAVE INCREASED 
AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W AND ARE BEING ENHANCED BY 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SHOULD 
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. 

$$ 
SCHAUER