000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010241 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ANDRES IS THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. AT 01/0300 UTC...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 119.2W MOVING WEST OR 270 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE BROAD AREA OF SWELL RELATED TO ANDRES WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 08N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING SUN AFTERNOON SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRES AREA PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N103W. AS A RESULT...AT 31/2230 UTC IT WAS CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E. AT 01/0300 UTC THE DEPRESSION IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON MON AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUE. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 06N93W HAS WEAKENED AND A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THIS AREA EXTENDING FROM 09N93W TO 04N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 210 NM WEST OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 04N TO 07N. THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS HAS MOVED W OF AREA. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND CURRENTLY ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 137W. FRESH NE-E WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ALSO SEEN IN THAT AREA MAINLY FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 137W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N122W TO 07N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N128W. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NW WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO BEYOND 24N140W. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE MON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE REINFORCER BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE ANDRES OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE TUE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE BOTH TO THE S IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL TROUGHING MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE MORNING HOURS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT EARLY MON MORNING AND THEN EARLY TUE MORNING. $$ GR