000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312145 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ANDRES HAS STRENGTHENED TO A MAJOR HURRICANE ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS. AT 31/2100 UTC...IT WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 118.8W MOVING WEST OR 270 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS...DIPPING BELOW HURRICANE FORCE BY LATE TUE. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE BROAD AREA OF SWELL RELATED TO ANDRES WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 08N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR 12N103W WITH MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE ELL DEFINED CENTER WAS TOTALLY EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY...BUT NOW CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER AND HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL ORGANIZED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WILL BE ISSUE SOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS... THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 06N93W HAS WEAKENED AND A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THIS AREA EXTENDING FROM 09N92W TO 05N93W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS HAS MOVED W OF AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS STILL NOTED OVER THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 137W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED ONLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 137W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO 07N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 30N127W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NW WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO BEYOND 24N140W. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON MON. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION NEAR PANAMA AND LIKELY OFF COLOMBIA IS POSSIBLY TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE BOTH TO THE S IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL TROUGHING MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS TO 7-9 FT. $$ GR