000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172114
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN MAY 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1945 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL REGION OF THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IN THE NORTH EASTERN PACIFIC. THE ITCZ AXIS 
WAS ANALYZED FROM 4N130W TO 09N139W TO A TROUGH FROM 10N140W TO 
12N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THIS 
AXIS...BUT A SPATTERING OF AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE NOTED TO THE 
E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-08N E OF 82W... 
FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 85W-88W AND FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 116W AND 
122W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 300 
NM NW AND 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 05N91W TO 01N107W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 26N140W 
THROUGH 28N124W TO THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO NEAR 19N110W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND A SURFACE 
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N123W TO 09N126W IS GENERATING MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADES MAINLY BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND W OF 120W. THE 
FRESH TRADES ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT 
FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 136W IN MIXED NE...SW AND NW SWELL. A COLD 
FRONT WAS ANALYZED N OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 29N134W 
TO 28N140W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY SUNRISE MON AS IT 
REACHES FROM 30N127W TO 28N130W TO 26N135W THEN DISSIPATE 
THROUGH MON AS IT SINKS SLOWLY SE. WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS 
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A MODERATE BREEZE NEAR THE FRONT AND 
SEAS TO 8 FT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED N OF 31N BEHIND THE FRONT. 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WHICH 
WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY CONSTANT AND MAINTAIN 
THE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 
120W...WITH OCCASIONAL AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY 
OCCURRING OFF THE NW EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND LOW 
PRESSURE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING A 
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE ALONG MOST OF THE PACIFIC COASTAL 
WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY BY MON AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS 
THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INCREASES SURFACE 
TROUGHING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH A FRESH TO 
STRONG BREEZE OFFSHORE S OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO 25N MON AFTERNOON 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. 
 
GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 
KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SW SWELL 
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 8 FT AND GREATER ALONG THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THU 
MORNING. THIS PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH 
THE COASTLINES OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE FRI.
 
$$
SCHAUER