000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111520 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAY 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N95W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N110W TO 08N119W TO 06N132W...THEN RESUMES W OF ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH AT 05N135W TO BEYOND 04N140W. A VERY ACTIVE ITCZ IS NOTED W OF 117W WITH CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 117W AND 133W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB LOCATED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 38N148W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS...ALONG WITH MIXED SWELL OF 8-11 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS...HIGHEST NEAR 11N135W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND SHRINK IN COVERAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. A TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 09N133W TO 03N134W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATES A WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN THIS GENERAL AREA NEAR 06N136W BY 24 HOURS AND WILL DRIFT WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS INDICATES WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST LATER TODAY WRAPPING AROUND POINT CONCEPTION TO SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO TUE. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH THE FAR N WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W BY TUE EVENING...LINGERING INTO EARLY WED. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 19-21 SECONDS IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICAL WATERS S OF 03N W OF 82W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...INCLUDING CABO CORRIENTES AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS LATE TUE INTO WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW MEXICO BY LATE TUE WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N/30N TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING NEAR 8 FT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY TUE...SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL BUILDING SEAS TO 9-10 FT FROM 09N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W BY TUE AFTERNOON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY WED MORNING DUE TO A LOCALIZED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. $$ GR