000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N88W AND EXTENDS WSW TO 04N126W THEN TURNS W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM 04N125W TO 05N137W TO 08N140W. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N77W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO 02N88W TO A BASE NEAR 01N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 02N88W TO 01N100W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N136W TO 25N140W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 100-114W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 11N108W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW THROUGH 30N120W TO BEYOND 32N123W AND SEPARATES THE TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST AT 12N143W...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113-140W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST NEAR 08N95W...AND FINALLY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NNE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO A CREST OVER SE GEORGIA. ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND MERGES WITH A DENSE TROPICAL PLUME ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...ALL CONCENTRATING INTO A PLUME THAT CONTINUES E WITHIN 480 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N129W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ACROSS PANAMA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 05N83W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 16N105W. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NE TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-13N BETWEEN 125-140W. THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING SEVERAL OTHER LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05- 20N W OF 115W. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE ON MON. THE ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT ON TUE. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 15-17 SECONDS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 05N BETWEEN 90-140W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL SPREAD N REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON TUE AND WED AT 16-20 SECONDS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND JUST SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. $$ NELSON