000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
          
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 07N115W TO 05N130W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF A LINE 
FROM 06N111W TO 06N120W TO 08N134W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NE PORTION OF  
THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N W OF 130W. AN UPPER 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OBSERVED FROM 20N120W TO 30N127W WITH A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH N OF 27N E OF 120W EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER 
THE TROPICS AT 05N104W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO A 
CREST AT 09N140W...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. TROPICAL 
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTING NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 
12-25N BETWEEN 104-140W MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL   
CUBA TO ACROSS PANAMA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC 
AT 03N94W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION 
OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.
 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 31N1375W TO 15N106W. 
THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NE TRADES 
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-16N BETWEEN 124W-140W. THE ASSOCIATED 
NE SWELL IS MIXING SEVERAL OTHER LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX 
THROUGH TODAY WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT ON MON. THE 
ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT LATE 
WED.  
 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS    
S OF 02N BETWEEN 90-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT. RE-
ENFORCING S SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT 
BUILDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N E OF 110W ON 
TUE...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON WED.
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF WHICH WILL SPREAD 
WESTWARD TO 88W LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH 
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG LEVELS EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

$$ 
LEWITSKY