000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N93W TO 03N110W TO 06N124W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 07N127W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA S TO 
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 08N105W WITH 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 10N118W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION W OF 115W AS 
IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E 
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST NEAR 07N89W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE 
EXTENDS NNE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO A CREST OVER CENTRAL 
MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ACROSS PANAMA TO A BASE OVER 
THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 05N82W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ UP AND AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WITHIN 600 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 10N117W TO 
18N100W.

AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N140W WITH 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 28N126W TO 18N107W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT NE TRADES ACROSS 
THE WATERS FROM 10-1N BETWEEN 122-140W AS INDICATED BY A RECENT 
HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE ASSOCIATED FRESH 
NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD S AND NW SWELL RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY 
EARLY MON. THE ENHANCED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 
6-7 FT LATE WED. MEANWHILE THE GRADIENT NE OF THIS RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA. A BRIEF LULL IN THESE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY LATER 
THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY RETURN N OF 25N BY THIS EVENING 
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS S 
OF 02N BETWEEN 95W-131W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT. RE-
ENFORCING S SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT 
BUILDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 07N E OF 120W BY 
TUE...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON WED.
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS 
OVER AND JUST SW OF THE GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH MON.

$$ 
LEWITSKY