000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080900 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N85W TO 04N110W TO 04N125W TO 06N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...WITHIN 150 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 08N114W TO 10N120W...WITHIN 150 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 05N122W TO 09N126W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 09N W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS AT 33N118W TO 23N130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 10N106W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 11N130W. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST NEAR 10N86W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS NNE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO A CREST OVER NE TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 06N83W. MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ITCZ IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 110W INCLUDING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 34N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 24N122W TO 16N102W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N116W TO 05N118W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ TO THE W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N137W TO 04N140W. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF 140W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS AND THE RIDGING TO THE N IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS AS RECENTLY SAMPLED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 128W. ALTIMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS SURROUNDING THIS AREA OF TRADES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE TRADES AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING SEAS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE 20-30 KT NW-N WINDS ARE HUGGING THE COAST. THESE WINDS ARE SENDING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY 24 HOURS AND AS A RESULT THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THEN. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N BY SAT EVENING AS THE TROUGHING BECOMES ENHANCED. A SET OF LONG PERIOD 18-20 SECOND SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS PROPAGATED NE OF THE EQUATOR WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT S OF 02N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W. A REINFORCING SET WILL ARRIVE SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT REACHING TO 10N E OF 120W ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...THEN SUBSIDING FROM W TO E WED. SEAS OF 8 FT WILL LIKELY REACH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND COASTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR BY MID-WEEK. THESE SEA HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH LONG PERIODS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS UPON THEIR ARRIVAL. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER TO ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS NICELY SAMPLED 20-30 KT S-SW WINDS N OF 29.5N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. SEAS ARE AROUND 8 FT DESPITE A SHORT FETCH LENGTH...AND WILL SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES HAVE MISSED THE GULF HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT. $$ LEWITSKY