000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
04N103W TO 05N112W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N112W TO 07N120W TO 
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 TO 
240 NM N OF THIS ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...AND WITHIN 
180 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF WEAK LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 04N103W.

...DISCUSSION...    

FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N132W TO 
A BASE NEAR 24N134W. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AMPLIFYING WITH 
TIME. A FLAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE S AND SE OF THE 
TROUGH AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A COUPLE 
OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS NOTED...ONE CENTERED NEAR 11N109W 
AND ANOTHER NEAR 10N135W. AXIS OF 100-110 KT SUBTROPICAL JET 
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 21N140W AND CUTS THROUGH 
25N120W...CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. 

THE LARGE SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL HAS SUBSIDED TO 6-8 FT 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO WED. ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS....20-22 SECONDS...IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 
EQUATOR LATE WED AND ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA BY EARLY FRI. 

HIGH PRES NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N143W WILL BECOME 
STRONGER WED NIGHT AND THU WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN 
OVER THE TROPICS....LEADING TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT 
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 123W-135W WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT. AN 
AREA OF NW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W-127W LATE TUE.

$$
COBB