000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT MAY 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N80W TO 10N109W TO 1008 MB LOW 09N116W TO 
07N127W TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N 
TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 114W...FROM 02N TO 03N BE

...DISCUSSION...    

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N133W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N138W...BEYOND 24N140W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... 
AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...COVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 
FROM 20N NORTHWARD. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N112W. 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 
20N SOUTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 
20N130W NORTHWESTWARD...TO 27N107W IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR 
SECTION OF MEXICO...AND THEN THE WIND FLOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  
 
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL 
EXPERIENCE WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 
REACHING 8 FEET...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND SPEEDS 
WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET 
FROM LATE SUNDAY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY...WHEN 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS 
RETURN TO THE AREA.

AN AREA OF SWELL HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. THE AREA THAT ROUGHLY IS FROM 132W 
EASTWARD WILL BE AFFECTED FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY 
MORNING...AND FROM 126W EASTWARD FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY 
MORNING. THE ENTIRE AREA ENDS UP WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS 
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM MONDAY MORNING 
ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N140W...TO 24N134W TO 21N111W.

...THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS...AND 8 TO 10 FOOT 
SEA HEIGHTS WILL COVER THE AREA WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE LINE FROM 13N97W TO 15N95.5W TO 16N95W...FOR TODAY INTO 
SUNDAY MORNING. THE SITUATION WITH THE WIND AND SEAS WILL STAY 
ROUGHLY THE SAME IN TERMS OF THE AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY THE 
WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO 
MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 
TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 TO 12 FEET. THE 
AREA OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTUALLY WILL BE OVERRUN BY 
THE SOUTHWEST SWELL THAT IS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
EQUATOR. 

$$
MT