000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED APR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS 
TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BUILD UP TO 13 
FT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT 
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 06N97W TO 07N111W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N119W TO 04N129W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...    

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 113W 
AND BROAD RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED OVER SW WATERS NEAR 10N135W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W 
OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO E OF THE TROUGH. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION 
IS OCCURRING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 85W-100W. A 
DYING STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS NW WATERS. NW SWELL BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 
30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD 
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND 
FRI WITH SEAS 9-10 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL 
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH 
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
MUNDELL