000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N95W 06N102W 07N108W 05N118W 06N133W BEYOND 
04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 103W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N120W TO 10N124W TO 09N127W TO 08N128W TO 
08N131W TO 06N134W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 117W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 05N74W TO 
03N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA 
FROM 09N86W TO 07N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. ISOLATED 
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 
03N NORTHWARD FROM 84W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N118W 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N124W TO 
21N127W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS 
WITHIN 240 NM TO 280 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 14N140W TO 16N125W TO 21N113W...BEYOND 24N107W IN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N142W TO 25N133W 20N113W...AND 
TO 14N100W. TRADE WIND NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS 
WILL COVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ROUGHLY FROM 06N TO 20N 
FROM 125W WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COMPARATIVELY 
SMALLER AREA OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 
RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET WILL START BY COVERING A SMALL AREA 
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W...AND IT WILL END UP 
COVERING THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 09N TO 18N FROM 128W WESTWARD. 

AN AREA OF NORTHWEST SWELL STARTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE 
FROM 30N125W TO 25N130W TO 23N136W TO 18N135W TO 18N140W. THAT 
AREA EVENTUALLY EXPANDS IN ORDER TO COVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 30N117W TO 24N119W TO 
20N130W TO 20N140W. 

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE FAR 
NW CORNER OF THE GULF. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 
22/0400 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS FROM 30N NORTHWARD. 
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND THEN RE-STRENGTHEN OFF AND ON... 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FRESH-TO-STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL PULSE EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. IT 
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEAS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 8 FEET JUST TO 
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DURING THE TIMES OF THE FASTEST 
WIND SPEEDS.
 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 TO 
25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FROM SUNRISE UNTIL THE MIDDAY 
HOURS ON EACH DAY.

THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FEET...IN MIXED SOUTHWEST AND 
NORTHWEST SWELL...IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03.4S 
BETWEEN 98W AND 115W...FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

$$
MT