000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON APR 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 06N BETWEEN 98W AND 109W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N 
TO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 06N109W TO 
04N119W TO 05N132W...BEYOND 05N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N FROM 
132W WESTWARD. 

OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W...AND FROM 
07N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 01S TO 
11N FROM 110W EASTWARD...AND FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 118W AND 
122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02S TO 04S 
BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N126W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N125W 19N132W...BEYOND 18N140W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N102W.

HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...AS IT 
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF 10N140W. THE MOISTURE REACHES THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 28N SOUTHWARD. THE MOISTURE IS PASSING 
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 34N126W-TO-18N140W TROUGH...AND THE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N102W 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. 

TRADEWIND FLOW...THE AREA THAT IS ROUGHLY FROM 07N TO 22N FROM 
128W WESTWARD WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST 
WINDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 TO 
10 FEET...WITH SOME NW SWELL AT TIMES. 

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 
25 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY...IN 24 
HOURS...FROM 30N NORTHWARD. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FROM 
THE SUNRISE HOURS INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE WIND 
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN...DURING 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...IN 48 HOURS.

NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...20 KT OR LESS WILL BE REACHING THE 
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 
125W WESTWARD. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 TO 9 FEET IN NW 
SWELL. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 
KNOTS BY THURSDAY...FROM SUNRISE TO NOON...WITH THE SEA HEIGHTS 
REACHING 11 TO 12 FEET. THE AREA OF SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET AND 
HIGHER WILL EXPAND IN ORDER TO COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 
23N NORTHWARD FROM 118W WESTWARD. SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS 
ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY DURING THE 
PRE-SUNRISE HOURS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THIS AREA SEES A RESURGENCE IN WIND 
SPEEDS ON THURSDAY...NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS...DURING THE TIME 
FROM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL SUNRISE...AND FROM SUNRISE UNTIL 
NOON. THE SCENARIO OF NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL 
BE REPEATED ON FRIDAY...FROM SUNRISE UNTIL NOON.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...THIS AREA RECEIVES A BRIEF SHOT OF NORTH 
WINDS 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY...FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL SUNRISE.

$$
MT