000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE APR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE PRIMARY ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 04N97W TO 02N110W TO 03N125W TO 
07N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 110W...FROM 00N TO 
04N BETWEEN 118W AND 121W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. THE SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 03.4S93W 
TO 01N102W TO 03.4S108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 104W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W..

...DISCUSSION... 

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1035 MB LOCATED NEAR 28N140W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 21N112W. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COASTS WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. 
THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS 
MANAGING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS      
N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE S THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS SNEAKING INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING WHICH 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT.

FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTING 
AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 127W AND 
134W. THESE TRADES WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS 
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE SINK SLIGHTLY TO THE SE-S. THE 
TRADES WILL THEN DIMINISH BACK TO FRESH LEVELS WED AND WED NIGHT 
WHILE ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-10 FT LINGER INTO THU MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS 
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.   
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT   
OR REMNANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF COMMENCING WED     
MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO 28N BY THU MORNING.

E OF 110W...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING   
HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN    
8 FT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
LEWITSKY