000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN APR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N90W TO 02N108W TO 04N116W TO 03N120W TO 
05N127W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 60 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION... 

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO SOUTHERN 
BAJA IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH ACTIVE SHOWERS 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO NW MEXICO. ASCAT PASS AT 
0500 UTC SHOWED 20-30 KT N-NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS 
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN THE 
AREA TODAY. ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES N OF 10N W OF 115W. 
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 100W. TUTT 
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO GALAPOGOS.

EXPECT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURES W 
OF 107W THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE FAIRLY 
INACTIVE WITH TYPICAL PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS W OF 110W...AND GENTLE WINDS E OF 110W. AN AREA OF 8-9 FT 
N-NW SWELL WILL PUSH S OF 30N BETWEEN 118W-126W MON NIGHT FROM 
STRONG NW WINDS W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY AND MON. 

$$
MUNDELL